A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
