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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd